One of the most important -- and least talked about -- trends in Latin America is starting to draw attention in the wake of the recent coup attempt in Venezuela: the drastic reduction of Latin American armies.
Throughout the region, civilian governments are cutting military budgets and selling off military-run businesses to the private sector. Latin American armies -- once the most powerful institutions in the region -- are finding themselves with less money and fewer perks, facing growing questions about their mission in the post-Cold War era.
As it became evident recently in Venezuela, Argentina and Panama, many officers are not ready to accept the new reality.
The Venezuelan coup plotters claimed they tried to take power to help the poor in their country, but their language echoed regionwide military resentment over its steady loss of political and economic clout.
Consider the latest figures from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies:
In Argentina, the military budget dropped from $2.7 billion in 1984 to $771 million in 1991. In Chile, the military budget fell from $1.6 billion in 1984 to $573 million in 1991. In Brazil, the military budget was cut from $1.6 billion in 1985 to about $1 billion in 1991. In Venezuela, the military budget dropped from $824 million in 1985 to $519 million in 1990. Ironically, it is believed to have grown substantially over the 12 months before the coup attempt, in part because of a government program to create army jobs for unemployed civilians. The Nicaraguan armed forces have been cut from 63,000 troops in 1985 to 30,500 in 1991, and El Salvador is scheduled to cut its 43,600-member force by 50 percent by early 1994.
Latin American military officers can no longer expect to retire into guaranteed jobs in state-run companies, because many of these firms are being sold to the private sector. The regional move toward the free market is not helping the military.
"It used to be that air force people retired at a young age and went to work for the state-run airlines, or that navy people would go to state-run naval companies," said Anthony Maingot, a senior Latin America expert with Florida International University. "Those days are over."
In a climate of general despair, conspiracy theories are running wild
Retired Venezuelan Gen. Jacobo Yepez Daza, leader of the Institute of Retired Armed Forces Officers and a staunch supporter of the leaders of the Feb. 4 coup attempt, charged in a recent interview with El Diario de Caracas that there is a U.S. plan for the "gradual disappearance of our National Armed Forces."
The statement echoed allegations in Spanish-language publications that there is a "Bush plan" for "eliminating the armed forces" in Latin America. The alleged plan's ultimate goal would be to achieve total U.S. hegemony over the region.
U.S. officials deny the existence of any such plan. They say it is a hoax spread in Latin America by extremist Lyndon LaRouche, based on a wild misinterpretation of global demilitarization plans.
But many officers in Latin America cite the dismantling of Panama's Defense Forces in the aftermath of the 1989 U.S. invasion of Panama as evidence of the alleged "Bush plan." They also cite a recent International Monetary Fund guideline that countries' military spending should not exceed 5 percent of their gross domestic product.
"There is a new spirit of anti-Americanism among military officers in the region," said Johanna Mendelson, a military specialist with American University in Washington. "These people think the whole world is ganging up on them."
Many analysts expect to see an escalation of nationalistic rhetoric coming from Latin America's army barracks in the near future. But behind it, there may be little more than nostalgia for the days of fat military budgets and nearly unlimited perks.